Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Dangerous Time

I think it is a more dangerous time in the world than do many of my friends.

It seems to me that it is inevitable that Iran, Syria, and other middle eastern nations will once again attack Israel. The reports I read now make me think this could happen anytime. Israel's leadership seems less capable now than in the past and surely that must be a part of the reason that war is edging ever closer.

Even if Israel didn't exist there is the unrelenting conflict between other parties in the middle east. There are numerous religious factions, all of whom are eager to kill and maim not only their opponents but their own children. There are similarly disposed political groups. And then there are just the ordinary thugs. The Iraq-Iran war lasted 8 years and resulted in more than 1 million casualties.

Even with the world economy slowing, oil remains at nearly $100 largely because of the instability in the region.

US presence in the region has probably postponed the inevitable. Eventually though Iran will begin manufacturing nuclear weapons. There appears to be no political will in the world to stop them. It reminds me much of the period before World War II. Pakistan will likely slide further under the control of the Islamic extremists. War between Pakistan and India seems likely to me and it is very likely to be nuclear.

If and when Iran acquires nuclear weapons then there is little doubt they will be used against Israel and the United States. First they will likely be provided to Iran's proxy states and to several terrorist organizations. A dirty bomb seems the most likely event that will first occur in the US. I expect that to happen before an outright war occurs against Israel. Because such an event inside the US would effectively neutralize US support for Israel and that would make it easier for the Iranians and their allies to eliminate Israel. They don't seem to mind taking great losses themselves so I suspect a good number of the Palestinians will also be destroyed.

If that weren't enough, worldwide there are so many other places where conflict either is ongoing or is at the very precipice. One group despises another group and attempts to kill all of their nemeses. Or there is the corruption that now is taken as the norm in so many places around the world.

Not that any of this is new of course. But it does seem to me that there are more incidents and that those are happening with increasing ferocity and frequency. Nearly all of them have the potential to involve the entire world in conflict. It is amazing to think such conflict will really be more widespread than in World War II.

There are developing scarcities of food, water, land, and other resources. Really it is hard to be optimistic about future political solutions.

The United States remains nearly alone on the world stage as a place of hope and opportunity. Which is precisely why so many are trying to get here. On the other end are those who so desperately hate us.


Lori1955 said...

I have to agree that we are living in dangerous times. I forsee the world changing drastically in the next couple of decades and I really don't think there is anyone that can stop it. "Wars and rumors of wars."

~♥Chris♥~ said...

The way the world is changing really frightens me. I fear for our future and those who will be here after we are gone.

~Betsy said...

I have very strong opinions about the Middle East - especially since Tony did a tour in Ramadi, Iraq. I can't even begin to tell you how many times he was nearly killed by a young person who was yielding a gun under his jacket or a dog with a bomb tied to his collar.

My fear is the hatred is so ingrained. These kids are taught to hate from the moment they are old enough to understand. They are also taught to act on their hatred. They are very well trained.

I don't know what the answer is, but I'm tired of hearing what war mongers the US is. These extremists are real. And they are praying a soft government gets in the White House so that they can again catch us off guard. This time, it will be much worse than 9/11 - much, much worse.

nancy said...

i agree, it is a scary time. as much as i would love to see no war or troops having to go and fight, i agree with betsy, i think the middle east is hoping and waiting for a softer leader on the war to be elected and then 911 will seem like nothing. it is a real frightening time we live in.

thanks for the post and God bless us all!

~Betsy said...

By the way, Tony and many of his other Marine buddies told us stories of kindness and hospitality from the Iraqi people. The gun-yielding kids were extremists, not the average Iraqi citizen. Just wanted to point that out.